Part 2 by LBW Steve Schullo Continued
He wrote: “Ordinary folks with no formal financial education can be wealthy if they have a handful of behavioral skills that have nothing to do with formal measures of intelligence.”
That’s me! I have never taken a financial course in my life. I flunked 2nd grade and I scored a lower than 100 IQ. But I had a huge advantage because I majored in psychology. Knowing how my mind functioned, I mitigated my return expectations of the market and drama during three of the biggest stock market crashes in history. My expectations for growth and losses are reasonable, balanced between stocks and fixed because I knew what the world-wide stock market returns since 1870. With my mind disciplined to stay the course forever and to do what I can do—control the real deal by keeping expenses low and be extremely happy with reasonable returns. I have perfect control by paying myself instead of some Wall Street mucky muck’s yacht.
For years, seasoned investors poo-poo psychology (read the one and two-star reviews of this book). There is at least one huge exception. One of the most significant financial thinkers of the 20th century and the mentor and professor of Warren Buffett. Ben Graham wrote said in the very first paragraph of his monumental 623 page The Intelligent Investor, “…little will be said here about the technique of analyzing securities; attention will be paid chiefly to investment principles and investors’ attitudes.” (1973 revised, page 1).
The author had the great wisdom to cite a book titled “Enough” by the legendary John Bogle. Morgan tells stories of people “hit it big” (IN THE BILLIONS!). It wasn’t “enough.” They want more, and in the end, they lost it all. Bogle’s most famous quote to get the market averages mentioned previously is to invest in the “entire haystack, do not look for the needle.”
The author makes an important statement that is long overdue and worth repeating—the qualitative discussions of investing is more complicated than the quantitative discussions. It is humans that make the decisions and do all the trading on the stock exchanges throughout the world. Last I heard, humans have feelings. Housel says that science is exact and is governed by predictable physical laws. Molecules and atoms do not have feelings! But millions of investors do! Sir Isaac Newton would agree. He famously lamented after losing his investments to the South Sea Disaster in the 18th century, “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” Knowledge of psychology and behavior will help you understand and protect yourself from the “madness of people.”
The author covers a lot of ground because there is a lot of human behavioral and psychological constructs to explain. Luck vs. skill, attitude vs. math, being average vs. being superior, uncertainty vs. certainty, and confidence born from wisdom vs. overconfidence born from recklessness are impossible to measure and explain. The author correctly labeled these constructs “soft skills” (Hard skills are the math, statistics, graphs, and tables). Luck, attitude, accepting average returns, uncertainty, long-term horizon, and overconfidence are difficult to explain without emotional pushback from some investors. Most seasoned investors want to be intelligent, act aggressive, appear confident, and look sophisticated and soft skills will not get them that image and beat the market.
We love to think successes originated on skills, knowledge, intelligence, spreadsheets, and math. The most vital reaction to many seasoned investors is downplaying luck to investment success. But Morgan won’t have it. Making money from stock and bond investing is being smart with the complicated reality we face, and spreadsheet knowledge will not be enough. That being lucky is part of the equation. He admits that the luck factor is the question that might not be answered in our lifetimes.
In the meantime, there is nothing wrong with being lucky. The returns are green too. But most seasoned investors feel insulted. Warren Buffett always reports that he is an incredibly fortunate investor born in the United States. I am lucky that I am alive after contracting stage two colon cancer twenty years ago. Any one of us could have been born in a small village in India in abject poverty, a shantytown in Lima, Peru, or one of our country’s public housing projects.
In Part 3. I explain why I gave the author 4 stars instead of the coveted 5 Stars. Click here
Steve’s Bio
Stephen A. Schullo, Ph.D. (UCLA ’96) taught in the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) for 24 years and UCLA Extension teaching educational technology to student teachers. Steve wrote investment articles for the United Teacher-Los Angeles (UTLA) union newspaper for 13 years. He has been featured and quoted in many mainstream media articles about 403(b) plans, including the Los Angeles Times, NY Times, and U.S. News and World Report. He co-founded an investor self-help group 403bAware for teacher colleagues and wrote 7,500 posts in three investment forums since 1997. He testified at California State legislative hearings and honored with the “Unsung Hero” award by his teacher’s union for his retirement planning advocacy.
For the last 14 years, he serves as a volunteer on LAUSD’s Investment Advisory Committee as a “Member-at-Large” and former co-chair. The committee contains collective bargaining reps from the unions and monitors the district’s tax-deferred retirement plans, 457b/403b, of 55,000 former and current LAUSD employees, worth $2.8 billion in total assets.
He started this blog in 2012 to help all PreK-12 public school educators nationwide, especially his Los Angeles Unified School District colleagues. He belongs to a small national group of 403(b) advocates (mostly teachers) who want to bring closer attention to the 403(b). During the last 25 years, 40 newspaper articles have been published and each one says the same thing, TSAs (Tax Sheltered Annuities) are terrible 403(b) plans and the salesperson gets the benefit from lucrative commissions and high-costs. Nobody in educational leadership reads these articles NOR talk about the proper place for annuity products publically. We come together at 403bwise.com and 403bwise Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/groups/349968819000560/ Come on over if you want to join us so we can help our colleagues avoid the sales people’s self-conflicted and high-cost Tax-sheltered Annuities (TSAs).
Steve is the author of two books, Late Bloomer Millionaires and Fighting Powerful Interests: Educators Challenge Tax-sheltered Annuities and WIN!, a story of how a handful of LAUSD educators struggled for years to improve the 403(b) to no avail. But we never quit! We were instrumental in LAUSD’s implementation of the new 457(b) plan and earned a very rare, but very precious “Plan Design” award.
For a copy of both books, email Steve at steve.schullo@latebloomerwealth.com and he will happily email you both books, FREE with no obligation except to read them and get informed, in a pdf file format.